IlluMyFi

The UK’s number-crunching body is still playing catchup over job figures after the pandemic, with validity of survey data being questioned

UK economy flatlines, putting pressure on Rachel Reeves

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), with its number-crunchers and crack-of-dawn data dumps, is an unlikely backdrop for turmoil.

But in recent months the Newport-based institution has come under repeated attack over questionable jobs figures, which experts have said leave policymakers“flying blind”. On top of this, questions are now being asked about survey data used to formulate its GDP readings, which were revised down for the second and third quarters on Monday.

Sentiment

-0.07

Bearish/Bullish

24.12.24 03:39

by theguardian.com

American Airlines flight grounding cancelled; UK’s FTSE 100 rises 0.4% as ‘Santa...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, on a shortened Christmas Eve trading session in London

UK car industry hails plan for Prius-style hybrids to stay on sale after 2030

Jonathan Webster-Smith, chief investment officer at Bowmore Asset Management, makes an important point about the Santa rally concept:

“Every year investors hope for a Santa rally – but they should be careful about trading on the back of it.”

“The years in which this occurs are a bit too random”.

The FTSE 100 has risen in three of the past five years (2019-2023, inclusive) for the ten-day period leading up to New Year

Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones index has historically risen in 77% of years for the period between December 26 and January 2 – averaging +1.5%

The ‘Santa rally’ rise has occurred in 75% of the years since 1950 for the Dow Jones, according to one study

US stock market has averaged +1.3% over the last 70 years for the period between December 24 and December 31 according to another study

These gains significantly outperform the average six day return throughout the rest of the year – averaging just +0.2%