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Is Labour to blame for slowing UK economy? It’s more complex than that

www.theguardian.com 23-12-2024 02:15 1 Minutes reading

Tories point finger at Rachel Reeves’s budget but economy has been misfiring for best part of a decade

Economic growth revised to zero, stubbornly high inflation, and warnings of job losses on the horizon. After less than six months in office, a narrative is taking hold that Keir Starmer’s government is fumbling his number one mission to reboot Britain’s economy.

On the eve of the prime minister’s first Christmas in Downing Street, the early indicators certainly aren’t looking good. After growth was revised down from 0.1% to zero in the third quarter, and with the Bank of England forecasting more of the same in the fourth quarter, at best the UK economy has gone sideways since Labour’s election landslide in July.

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24.12.24 03:39
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American Airlines flight grounding cancelled; UK’s FTSE 100 rises 0.4% as ‘Santa...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, on a shortened Christmas Eve trading session in London

Jonathan Webster-Smith, chief investment officer at Bowmore Asset Management, makes an important point about the Santa rally concept:

“Every year investors hope for a Santa rally – but they should be careful about trading on the back of it.”

“The years in which this occurs are a bit too random”.

The FTSE 100 has risen in three of the past five years (2019-2023, inclusive) for the ten-day period leading up to New Year

Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones index has historically risen in 77% of years for the period between December 26 and January 2 – averaging +1.5%

The ‘Santa rally’ rise has occurred in 75% of the years since 1950 for the Dow Jones, according to one study

US stock market has averaged +1.3% over the last 70 years for the period between December 24 and December 31 according to another study

These gains significantly outperform the average six day return throughout the rest of the year – averaging just +0.2%

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