Oil and gold prices rise modestly as new era begins in Syria

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

Financial markets are calm after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where people are celebrating and a new era starts following five decades of dynastic rule.

The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce their latest policy verdict throughout this week and all – except the RBA – are expected to lower their rates.

The BoC is expected to cut by 50bp while the SNB and the ECB are expected to announce a 25bp cut. Some investors are convinced that the ECB could announce more than a 25bp cut. Either it could go bigger with a 50bp cut, or cut by 25bp but shift their focus from inflation to economic growth. I believe that the second option is more plausible. If that’s the case, we should not see a significant selloff in the euro post-decision.

Incoming data support our call for global growth lift into year-end, despite a slipping euro area and building political stress.

We expect policy rates in Canada, euro area and Sweden to drop to 2% or lower over the coming year, while US and UK rates settle close to 4%. This month’s meetings should point this direction.

1pm GMT: Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden speech on financial stability