Latest UK GDP growth report shows UK grew by just 0.1% in July-September, a slowdown on the first half of the year

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Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at investment group abrdn, also points the finger at the budget:

“The economy was always going to slow from the famously “gangbusters” pace of the first half of this year, but the extent of the slowdown is a bit more pronounced than expected.

With activity growth in September being reported as particularly weak, it is plausible that some of slowing is the result of elevated uncertainty at that time, as firms and households speculated about possible tax changes ahead of the Budget. That said, it is also possible that this just represents normal monthly volatility rather than anything more fundamental.

“The UK economy stalled over the third quarter. Uncertainty ahead of the Budget probably played a big part, with firms widely reporting a slow-down in decision making. Hopefully this will prove to be a blip. We still expect the economy to return to a path of modest growth in the year ahead. But downside risks to the outlook have increased.

“The Budget has set off warning lights for business. The hike in National Insurance Contributions alongside other increases to employers’ cost base will add to the burden on business. And it is expected to trigger a more cautious approach to pay, hiring and investment as companies work through what it means for their own budgets.